When I was a young boy, Carter led superpower America. Bill Clinton became very popular with the Lewinsky scandal. I read the Lewinsky disclosure series with a great romantic exploration. The United States Presidents from Jimmy Carter to Trump, I consciously remember.
I get to know about American hypocrisy, on one hand, Military actions in Yemen, Libya, Iraq, Somalia, Syria, and Afghanistan and on the other, forcing other developing nations to sign the Nuclear Non- proliferation Treaty for the sake of World Peace. This is American Policy both Democrats and Republicans must follow.
Since the time of Obama, I get interested in US Presidents as a persona. The reason for my interest is the intimacy of our Prime Minister Narendra Modi with both Obama and Trump. His closeness with both encourages me to read about these two presidents.
Modi seems to be closer to Trump than Obama. Because both of them practice the same political ideology of nationalism and selective pluralism i.e. religious/racial democracy. Media in my country has boosted my interest in India-US relationship and cooperation.
In 2016, I was stuck to the television to keep me updated with the latest election advances truly not for Trump. Because I knew nothing about him before the election. Moreover, I had a soft corner for Hillary- wife of Bill Clinton. I still remember how curious I was to know her reaction. When Lewinsky revealed her affair with her husband.
Trump’s controversial persona typically made him the cynosure of all eyes within and outside America. Media was highlighting the worthy candidature of Hillary Clinton. But I was not convinced although visibly I didn’t have any reason. Leaving everyone spellbound, Trump won the presidential election. To corroborate the apprehension of American media, President Trump showed his unexpected moves.
I am neither a journalist nor a political analyst, but a reader of opinions who dive deeper to understand and gather facts to speculate situation turn about in the future.
I have spotted five convincing reasons in favor of Donald Trump’s victory in 2020.
Support of Religious Conservatives and White Americans
In 2019, 65% of polled American adults identified as Christians. The Pew Research Center 2014 survey in the United States has found 25.4% Evangelicals, 20.8% Roman Catholics, and 14.7% mainline Protestants. But Gallup reported that Evangelicals made up 41% between 2016–18.
No Republican candidate can win the U.S. presidency without the evangelical votes. About eighty million Americans are evangelists. It makes up about a quarter of the country. Three- quarters of evangelical votes go to Republicans.
Trump is very practical. He knows how to take care of value voters. In 2016, close to 81% of white evangelicals cast their votes for him, and it was more than George W Bush got. And Trump definitely paid off their faithfulness.
Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh appointed to the Supreme Court,
Transgender Military bans and Muslim bans,
Defunding Planned Parenthood,
And creating a division of Religious freedom,
Trump has fulfilled his promises.
Gregory Thornbury argues, “Jesus himself pointed out, money tends to shut down moral inquiry.”
All the money is behind evangelical institutions is being given by Trump supporters.
Russel Moore, President of the Southern Baptist Convention referred to Trump as “an arrogant huckster.” And called the support evangelical leaders offered him “a disgrace”.
Moore was punished without delay. Over a hundred churches threatened to cut funding to the SBC. Some left the denomination. After the election, all the Big Southern Baptist Megachurch pastors called up Moore. And said, “You are to shut up about Donald Trump, or you are out of a job,” says Gregory Thornbury.
In 2020, eighty- two percent of white evangelicals are expected to cast their votes for Trump. Two- thirds of evangelicals believe. Trump has not damaged the decency of the presidency. Fifty- five percent agree with Sarah Huckabee Sanders. God wants him to be President. And ninety- nine percent opposed his impeachment. Trump has given evangelicals access to the President House that they never had.
The lower middle class, white voters are staunch Trump supporters. They want to build a wall( nativism) and drain the swamp(populism). Trump has a reason to claim. He has done his best to keep the wall on political agenda. He pushes through the anti- immigration agenda to appease 40 million white production workers. There are 29 million white voters without a degree to support Trump.
Rob Griffin, a political scientist at George Washington University, reported. That forty-five percent of the voters in 2016 were white without a college degree. They are still with Trump. They never hesitate to stand in a queue for hours to cast their votes. And that is an essential need for American actual voters.
The “moderate Republican”, is still not convinced with Trump. But the reduction in tax for higher- income groups will surely impress them to vote Trump to power. White Americans are 69% of the total. In the last election, Trump garnered 58% out of that.
US Stock Market & Market
President Donald Trump’s stock market stacks up well against the majority of his presidential predecessors.
U.S. stock market is up 54% on a price basis, and 64% on a total return basis by the most commonly used measure S&P500. Since Trump elected. That is more than double the 23% average market return according to data from Bespoke Investment Group.
The bellwether index gained over 28% this year, well above the average 12.8% return of year three for past U.S. presidents.
Major Stock Averages were all- time high last year despite unsteadiness in the wake of the U.S.- China Trade War. The S&P 500 crossed 3,200 for the first time hitting its seventh round-number milestone of 2019. Although business investment fell off owing to the unpredictability of trade war. Yet public market investors remained confident enough to put money into stocks.
Trump’s market got a raise from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the Central Bank, which lowered interest rates.
A decline in the unemployment rate to 3.5% is sure to help the market. The more people earn, the more they spend.
Luck seems to be with Trump. A few months ago, reflation could be predicted with emerging market currencies and commodities. It is recovering now after a long recession period. Of course, there is the macabre effect of the Coronavirus which is boosting come back of the American economy. But suddenly, last week coronavirus damage starts alarmingly to affect upcoming economic data. The success of the present administration lies in effective handling of this outbreak.
Avoidance of International Military Adventure
Trump has avoided involvement in new foreign military interventions. And he is claiming to scale back what is left of the operations he took over from his previous jobholders. He is planning to withdraw/cut American troops from Afghanistan and Syria.
On the other hand, the record shows that voters have no patience for foreign military interventions. Unpopular wars can crush a good economy in the minds of voters. But at the moment Trump seems to be delivering both peace and prosperity.
Trump observes American ties with other nations in his nationalistic and transactional aspects. He finds many of them becoming a reason for draining the nation’s treasury.
So, he wants to stop funding the security of nations that are not paying their fair share. He prefers to concentrate on looking out for America’s economy the same way every other nation does.
The world order that America designed in the years after the Second World War- four decades were now known as the Cold War will certainly come to an end.
Increase in Workers’ wages and Decrease in Unemployment
American workers got a long-awaited increase in hourly wages by 3.4% during the Trump administration.
The unemployment rate for workers without a high school diploma fell to 5.3% a record low. There are about 35% of voters out of the total electorate, are from the working class. Trump will attract a good percentage of them.
Invincible Power of Money
Donald Trump is the first billionaire president of the United States with a total worth of $3.10 billion as of Feb. 10, 2020.
His assets include:
Real Estate in New York and other cities worth $2.1 billion
The Winery, Golf courses and clubs around the world $590 million
Brand Business $80 million
Cash and Personal Assets $310 million.
In this money dominant world of today, money proves a game-changer in everything everywhere. Money can change the attitude and principles of Union and Organization leaders. Donations impress tenets of honored institutions. Monetary gains lure the voters to bear the troubles of polling stations to cast their votes. You will agree with me. Money can make a difference in any situation at any time.
Opinion Polls are not reliable. More than 50% of voters included in any opinion poll never go to cast their votes. They sit in comfort in their drawing rooms to discuss the politics of democracy while watching News Channels.
In almost every big democratic country people are reluctant to cast their votes.
Maybe they have unconsciously convinced themselves. Their votes can hardly make a difference. A symptom of diseased democracy!
In consequence, fifty to sixty percent of voters go to cast their votes. Out of which only ten percent of voters by their free will. And forty to fifty percent by their personal interests. A candidate who garners close to thirty- five percent is the winner. And becomes the leader of the constituency/presidency with its hundred percent voters.
This is democracy not by the people. How can you expect it to be ‘for the people’ and ‘of the people’?